Record Frequency of Getting Plunked

41-year-old Craig Biggio is S-L-owwwwly approaching the all-time record for times being hit by a pitch in a career. After getting hit 282 times in his first 19 years, he's only taken one not-so-free pass in the first 47 games this year (maybe old bodies don't take the bruising as well). He now stand 4 away from the all-time record of 287 by Hughie Jennings. Because Jennings played mostly before 1900, many already consider Biggio the leader of "modern" major league baseball, having passed Don Bylor a couple of years ago. But I've read recently that 1893 (when moder rules of pitching were implemented) is a better marker of the start of the modern period, in which case most of Jennings career would qualify. Anyway, I was wondering who has been hit most often, based on Plate appearances per HBP (hit by pitch) here is the top ten among those with 90+ career HBP. (How's this for a totally useless list?)

19.43 PA/HBP Hughie Jennings 287 HBP, 5576 PA, 1891-1903
25.34 PA/HBP Ron Hunt 243 HBP, 6158 PA, 1963-1974
25.68 PA/HBP Craig Wilson 90 HBP, 2311 PA 2001-present
26.29 PA/HBP Dan McGann 230 HBP, 6047 PA 1896-1908
26.64 PA/HBP Tommy Tucker 272 HBP, 7247 PA 1887-1899
27.68 PA/HBP Jason LaRue 94 HBP, 2602 PA 1999-present
28.55 PA/HBP Curt Welch 173 HBP, 4939 PA 1884-1893
30.20 PA/HBP Fernando Vina 157 HBP, 4742 PA 1993-2004
31.91 PA/HBP Jason Kendall 212 HBP, 6764 PA 1996-present
31.95 PA/HBP Kid Elberfeld 165 HBP, 5272 PA 1898-1914

and the next 5 highest from the "modern" era (1900 on)
35.07 PA/HBP Steve Evans 111 HBP, 3893 PA 1908-1915
35.21 PA/HBP Don Baylor 267 HBP, 9401 PA 1970-1988
36.29 PA/HBP David Eckstein 109 HBP, 3956 PA 2001-present
37.57 PA/HBP Doc Gessler 92 HBP, 3456 PA 1903-1911
39.87 PA/HBP Minnie Minoso 192 HBP, 7656 PA 1949-1964, etc.

What to make of it? Since the average player might average only a few HBP per 500 or so AB, the reasons these players stand out are likely 2: Big threats like Don Baylor, Frank Robinson (8th all-time with 198 HBP), Andres Galarraga (178 HBP) and Carlos Delgado (150 and counting) get crowded a lot, but to keep from giving the pitcher an advantage there, instead of bailing out they hold their ground and take a freebie. Also, tending to be bigger and slower, they naturally get hit more. Others, like Hunt and Eckstein and Biggio, are scrappy players with a "whatever it takes to get on" attitude who perfect the art of spinning INTO a pitch and getting nicked (it counts even if it just hits the uniform) without making it look TOO obvious (the rules say the batter is obliged to TRY to get out of the way, but when was that last enforced?) Anyway, that's the end of this earth-shattering, totally waste-of-time analysis of a freaky stat.

500 Saves

Trevor Hoffman is 5 saves from becoming the first reliever to save 500 games. And with Mariano Rivera struggling mightily and raising speculation that he's lost it at age 37, Hoff may remain the only one in this 500 Club for awhile. He'll be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame upon eligibility. In the meantime, I have to raise my voice one more time and ask, "Why isn't Lee Smith (now #2 all-time with 478 saves) already in Cooperstown?"

Ruth's Competition in his early years

It's well-known that the Babe exploded onto the scene, dominating the home-run category like no one before or since. When he first hit an eye-popping 54 in 1920, nearly doubling the all-time record he had just set as a part-time position player the previous year, his nearest competition had a measly 19. And in 1921, when he upped it to 59, second best was only 24. 1922 was the first year some other players got into the long-ball act, with Rogers Hornsby hitting 42, Ken Williams 39, and Tilly Walker 37. I did a little research, curious to find out what players not named Ruth hit the most homers through the 1920's (It wasn't until the late 1920's or 1930's that big-name sluggers like Ott, Foxx, Gehrig, Hack Wilson and Greenberg got into the act).

Through 1922, Tilly Walker of the Philadelphia A's led the way with 77 HR's in 1920-22. He was already 34 years old by then, though, and retired the next year. Behind him at that point were Ken Williams with 73 in those 3 years, Hornsby with 72, and Cy Williams with 59. These three then comprised the top three competitors to Ruth throughout much of the decade. Hornsby, of course, is a well-known hall-of-famer, 2nd to Ty Cobb all-time in career batting average. He was no slugger early on, averaging only 7 HR's/year from 1916-20. But with the advent of the live ball, he adapted with the times and cranked it up. The other two guys, though, Ken Williams of the St. Louis Browns and Cy Williams of the Phillies, are no hall-of-famers, and are deserving of more attention.

Cy hit 41 in 1923, giving him 100 for the 1920's to that point, just behind Ken Williams' 102 and ahead of Hornsby's 89. Through 1924, it was Cy with 124, Ken with 120, and Rogers with 114. Hornsby took the lead (and held it for the rest of the decade) among Ruth's competitors with 39 in 1925 for a 1920-25 total of 153 (K. Williams, 145; C. Williams, 137). Gehrig busted out as the first REAL competitor to Ruth with 47 in 1927. Through 1928, 8 long years after Ruth had burst through with 54 in a single year, 35+ homers in a season had only been achieved 6 times by five players not named Ruth (Hornsby twice, Ken Williams, Cy Williams, Tilly Walker and Gehrig).

Anyway, through 1929, the totals for the entire decade are as follows: Horsnby, 250; Cy Williams, 202; Ken Williams, 190. Those totals are a far cry from Ruth's 467 for the decade. But these three, in turn, are a good bit ahead of the next highest: 146 each by two of Ruth's teammates, Bob Meusel and Gehrig (who compiled 145 of that in just 5 full seasons).

Cy Williams retired in 1930 at age 42 with 251 career homers, third all-time on the list at that point behind Ruth's 565 and Hornsby's 279. Ken Williams retired in 1929, 4th on the all-time list at that time with 193. The even livelier ball of the 1930's meant that Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Wilson, Al Simmons, and Greenberg soon flooded past these forgotten Williamses (unrelated to each other). But one claim can never be taken away from these unsung Williamses. They will forever stand first and second on the list of homers by players born before Ruth (Hornsby was a year younger than the Babe).

Homers Down

Despite A-Rod's record 15 dingers in April (and he's heating up again), homers are down a good bit this year. Still not at pre-steroid levels, but here are the figures: in the AL it's down from 2.25 a game last year to 2.05 this year (and a high of 2.42 back in 1996). That's the lowest since 1.83 in 1993. In the NL, where pitchers are real men and hit for themselves, the rate is naturally lower. There, the fall has been steeper, from 2.19 last year to 1.74 this year (and a high of 2.32 in 2000). 1.74 would be the lowest, also, since 1993 (1.72). Maybe this isn't a bad thing. I remember when 40 HR's meant someone was an all-star slugger. (From 1990-1993, the majors averaged less than 3 who reach that number per year. By contrast, an average of 11 or 12 have reached it the last 11 years). And if the drop means that steroid testing is working, in my opinion that's worth experiencing the thrill of the long ball a little less often.

Following up on Last Year's Posts

Following up on some posts from last year: on 8/22/06 I speculated that the low ERA in 2006 among qualifiers (162+ IP) might be the highest ever (the record high low being Lefty Grove's 2. 81 in 1929. Well, Johan Santana just slipped under that with 2.77, the highest the major-league low has been since 1951, when it was a tick higher at 2.78. Here are the top ten highest Major-league leading ERA's:
1. 2.84 1929 Lefty Grove
2. 2.78 1951 Saul Rogorin
3. 2.77 2006 Johan Santana
4. 2.76 1987 Nolan Ryan & Jimmy Key
5. 2.71 1979 J. R. Richard and
1950 Sal Maglie
7. 2.67 1960 Frank Baumann
8. 2.66 1938 Bill Lee (NOT Bill "Spaceman" Lee)
9. 2.63 1925 Dolf Luque and
1922 Phil Douglas

It's interesting to me that the years are spread so much--you might think a particular high-scoring era would be overrepresented on the list.

Back on 8/25/06 I speculated that 2 or 3 players would reach 50 homers by the end of the year, with a possible high of about 58. I nailed that: Ryan Howard led with 58. Big Papi David Ortiz was the only other over 50, with 54, while Albert Pujols just missed with 49.

Lefties, Righties, and Career Home Runs

Here's a little piece of statistical trivia: Of the 4 players to have hit over 600 homers (before Sosa joins them soon), 2 hit from the left side (Ruth and Bonds), and two (Aaron and Mays) from the right. Of the 20 to have hit 500+, 9 were lefties, 9 righties and 2 were switch hitters (Mantle and Murray). And of those to have hit 450 or more--you guessed it--15 were lefties, 15 righties and 2 switch-hit. how about that for even distribution? Of course you might not consider it even in another way, since right-handed hitters outnumber lefties by a good bit. When you go down to those with 400+, you add 4 lefties and 6 righties, for a total of 19 lefties, 21 righties and 2 who switch-hit.

Switch hitting Sluggers

The promised breakdown of top career switch-hitting home run hitters (only 9 months after promised): (LH=left-handed, RH=right-handed)

536 Mantle 257 LH, 13.5 AB/HR; 106 RH,15.9 AB/HR (data missing for 1st 6 yrs of his career)
504 Murray 362 LH, 21.1 AB/HR; 142 RH, 26.0 AB/HR
368 Chipper Jones 288 LH, 16.9 AB/HR; 80 RH, 20.8 AB/HR
350 Chili Davis 233 LH, 25.8 AB/HR; 117 RH, 22.8 AB/HR
314 R. Smith 251 LH, 19.8 AB/HR; 63 RH, 32.9 AB/HR
306 Ruben Sierra 216 LH, 25.3 AB/HR; 90 RH, 28.7 AB/HR
287 Bobby Bonilla 182 LH, 25.9 AB/HR; 105 RH, 23.8 AB/HR
287 Bernie Williams 179 LH, 30.1 AB/HR; 108 RH, 22.9 AB/HR
248 Ted Simmons 146 LH, 38.1 AB/HR; 102 RH, 30.6 AB/HR
248 Jose Valentin 227 LH, 18.7 AB/HR; 21 RH, 56.9 AB/HR
246 Ken Singleton 185 LH, 27.4 AB/HR; 58 RH, 36.2 AB/HR
245 Mickey Tettleton 169 LH, 19.3 AB/HR; 76 RH, 18.9 AB/HR

and some more guys still active:
232 Tony Clark 175 LH, 17.1 AB/HR; 57 RH, 20.5 AB/HR
230 Lance Berkman 208 LH, 14.1 AB/HR; 22 RH, 40.8 AB/HR
211 Carlos Beltran 158 LH, 22.1 AB/HR; 53 RH, 23.0 AB/HR
146 Mark Teixeira 106 LH, 16.8 AB/HR; 40 RH, 17.8 AB/HR

Observations: most tend to hit HR's more frequently for the left side, perhaps reflecting that more natural lefties take up switch-hitting, or maybe too just because they get more practice (against right-handed pitchers) from that side.

Tettleton was the most even in power from both sides. Beltran's and Teixeira's homers are also very evenly distributed. Valentin and (a surprise to me) Berkman are sorely lacking in right-handed power. Makes one wonder if they'd be better off batting LH all the time!

Ichiro Caught

Oops, looks like I jinxed Ichiro Suzuki--he got caught stealing yesterday to end his AL record of 45 consecutive SB's without being caught.

Also, I came across Carlos Beltran's amazing career stolen base percentage: so far he's stolen 233 bases and been caught only 34 times, for a percentage of 87.3, better than Tim Raines' tops of 84.7% among the Top 100 in career SB's (340+). Beltran stole 13 of 13 in 2000, 31 of 32 in 2001, 41 of 45 in 2003 and 42 of 45 in 2004, including 28 of 28 after being traded to Houston.

Ichiro Update

By the way, Ichiro Suzuki has now been successful on an unbelievable 45 stolen base attempts in a row. He stole his last 39 last year without getting caught (to finish the year 45 of 47), and has so far stolen 6 this year wihout getting caught. He was only batting .260 with a measly 2 SB's as of 9 games ago, but has since gone 18 for 38 with 4 SB's during a 9-game hitting streak, raising his average to a more Ichiro-like .317.

Aramis, Cust, Carmona

Since coming over to the Cubs from Pittsburg during the 2003 season, Aramis Ramirez has consistently hit home runs at the pace of about one every four games played. Check it out:
2003 63 g 15 HR 4.2 g/HR
2004 145 g 36 HR 4.03 g/HR
2005 123 g 31 HR 3.97 g/HR
2006 157 g 38 HR 4.13 g/HR
2007 34 g 9 HR 3.78 g.HR
Oops! He hit one out today, so he's getting a little ahead of himself with 10 in 35 games so far in 2007, a rate of one every 3.5 games. Still, it's not a crime to IMPROVE on consistency!

And how about rookie outfielder Jack Cust with the A's. The 28 year old has now hit 7 HR's (and struck out 15 times--oh, well) in 10 games since being called up earlier this month. His hit totals so far are 2 singles, 1 double and the 7 dingers.

One more turnaround of note: Pitcher Fausto Carmona of the Indians is now 5-1 this year with a 2.55 ERA after hurling a 4-hit shutout today. This after a horrible rookie year in 2006, when he went 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA.

Are guys like Cust and Carmona worth adding to a fantasy team based on a few weeks' spectacular play? Such additions are chancy. Last month I added troubled former top draft pick Josh Hamilton to my roster based on 5 HR's in his first 30 AB's. He's since hit an unspectacular 3 HR's in 87 AB's. Similarly, I added the Cards' John Rodriguez when his average was well over .400 in mid-May last year. A month later, a slump had knocked him down to a maybe once-a-week starter. I think he's out of the big leagues now.

Base Stealer Minutia

Everyone knows that Rickey Henderson is tops in career stolen bases with 1406, 468 more than the man he passed, Lou Brock, now in 2nd place. But who is the top percentage stealer of all-time? "Caught stealing" became an official stat only in more recent times, but from what I know, the old-timers like Ty Cobb weren't the best percentage-wise. So here's the list (based on top 100 all-time in steals, or 340+):

84.7% Tim Raines (8o8 steals out of 954 attempts)
84.1% Eric Davis (349 of 415)
83.3% Willie Wilson (668 of 802)
83.11 Barry Larkin (379 of 456)
83.07 Tony Womack (363 of 437)
83.0 Davey Lopes (557 of 671)

Lopes would have been the all-time leader in his day (1970's+), as the ones now ahead of him came later. BTW, Eric Davis would be the all-time leader had he retired a little earlier. He was successful on only 14 of his last 26 steal attempts; subtract those, and he would have been at 86.1% (335 of 389).

How about the worst base stealers, percentage-wise? Again, based on 340+ career steals:

65.3% Rod Carew (353 of 540)
68.5 Brett Butler (558 of 815)
70.9 Billy North (395 of 557)
71.2 Omar Vizquel (369 of 518, as of yesterday)
71.4 Steve Sax (444 of 622)

A surprise to see hall-of-famer Carew as the worst--guess he should have stuck more to hitting! Lou Brock, I believe, said you had to make it at least 2/3's of the time to call it base-stealing--otherwise it was called "gambling."

And how about this for an arcane statistic: lowest number of games per stolen base. Eliminating those who played before 1900, when stolen bases were given out liberally, here's the list:

1.82 Vince Coleman (1371 g, 752 SB)
2.19 R. Henderson (3081, 1406)
2.42 Ron LeFlore (1099, 455)
2.76 Otis Nixon (1709, 620)
2.79 Lou Brock (2616, 938)
2.84 Omar Moreno (1382, 487)
2.87 Bob Bescher (1228, 428)
2.96 Billy North (1169, 395)

It helps to retire early, like Coleman did, to make this list. On the other hand, Henderson played well into his 40's, and still ranks 2nd! Bescher is the only old-timer on the list, from the pre-longball days. And North is the only one among the best here, and among the worst in percentages. That means he was doing a lot of running; also, he wasn't that good at getting on base, so when he did, he rarely stayed put!

Home Run Milestones

Looks like this could be a monumental season as far as home run milestones. Of course, the most obvious, most talked about, most hated and dreaded is Bonds' chase of Aaron's 755. Barry is within 10 now, having hit 11 in 30 games, including 3 in his last 16 ABs. It's only a matter of time. Word is that Aaron does NOT plan on being on-hand for the occasion.

Lost in all the hoopla and controversy surrounding Bonds are:

Sammy Sosa, in a comeback, looking to become the 5th ever to hit 600+ (5 to go after hitting 7 so far). Of course, he's no cleaner than Bonds when it comes to steroid suspicions. Then there is Ken Griffey, Jr., who earlier today tied Rafael Palmeiro (yet another 'roid user) for 9th all-time at 569, and could easily end the year at no. 6 (currently held by Frank Robinson, 586).

Then there are FOUR players with a decent chance of joining the 500 club this year: Frank Thomas (491, 4 in 2007); A-Rod (479, 15 in 2007, might hit 500 around--get this--his 32nd birthday!); Jim Thome (477, 5 in 19 games this year before his injury, from which he expects to return soon); and Manny Ramirez (476, 6 in 2007, including 4 in his last 8 games).

If they all make it, the 500 Club will be getting a little crowded, with 24 members. The 600 club, with 5, will have more than the 500 Club had when I was born in 1962. The exclusive club then had only Ruth, Foxx, Ott and Ted Williams, before the gates burst open in the 1960's and early 70's with Matthews, Banks, Mays, Aaron, Mantle, Robinson, Killebrew and McCovey added in short order. Still, I'm pretty sure that four new members have NEVER been admitted in any one year!

Francisco Redoux

I wrote last summer about Francisco Cordero's amazing turnaround as a closer after being traded from Texas to Milwaukee. Well, he's picked up this spring where he left off last fall. So far, in 12 games, he has 10 saves, has given up 0 (that's zero) earned runs and two hits in 11 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts. That's lights out!