Saturday, September 30, 2006

Whew! Cardinals Escape Eternal Infamy

Looks like my Cards won't replace the '64 Phillies as epitome of chokesters blowing a big lead in the last 2 weeks of the season. Unbelievable that the Cards have now had THREE losing streaks of 7+ games, and have remained in 1st through each streak! The first two streaks were 8 games, and I believe if they'd lost the 8th one this time, that woulda been all she wrote. But Albert Pujols strapped the slumping team on his back once more, and came through with a clutch homer late in that game. He hit another homer yesterday to help them win again. After Spiezo's clutch pinch hit, 3-run triple led them to win today, their magic # is 1. Pujols will be the Ruth of his lifetime by the time he's done!

My fantasy team has gone bad the past 3 days after I'd gotten back in 1st in my 12-team league, but it doesn't seem to matter near as much as the Cards pulling out of their tailspin. That's why it's called fantasy--doesn't compare to reality!

Saturday, September 23, 2006

HR ups and downs

Mark Teixeira (he of the weirdly pronounced last name) has had a feast or famine year in HR's. After hitting 38 and 43 out the last two years, he struggled to hit HR's (although not 2B's) the first half of the year. In April, hit hit only 3 HR (but 9 doubles); In May, only 3 again (with 6 2B's); in June, only 2 (but an incredible 12 2B's). At this point, he was on pace to hit just 16 or 17 HR (but 55 or so doubles!) The homer drought continued through the first week of July. Then, on July 9, the last game before All-Star break, he hit one out for the first time in 13 games (and only the 9th time in 88 games. Then, on the first game after the break, July 13, he smacked 3 over the wall. He ended with a decent 7 total in July (but only 4 doubles); he really poured in on in August, with 9 HR (and 7 doubles). Almost 3/4's into September, he has 5 HR and 5 2B for the mo. His totals now stand at 29 HR and a career-high 43 2B. He had 9 HR in 353 AB before the All-Star game (just over 1 every 40 AB), 20 in 245 AB since then (about 1 every 12 AB).

This is the opposite, of course, of Bobby Abreu's experience in 2005. That year, he won the All-Star Home Run Derby with a record performance, and hasn't been able to hit them out since! (He has 12 HR in 516 AB this year)

Another guy whose HR swing has gone south, inexplicably (I'd hate to think it was due to steroid testing being implemented) is Brian Giles. Since becoming a full-time starter in 1999, his home run totals, in yearly order, were: 39, 35, 37, and 38. At this point, after 2002, he had established himself as one of the best consistent sluggers in the game (a lot of great home-run hitters never string together 4 straight 35+ HR seasons). His total dropped to 20 in 2003, only slightly due to missing about 20 games injured. Then, with no injuries, he hit only 23 in 2004, dropping even further to 15 last year, a total he may or may not reach this year (13 in 573 AB so far). Who knows if he'll ever regain that home-run swing? He's now age 35. We'll see.

Ortiz's Homer Progression

Sorry about the 9-day gap, faithful (?) readers. David Ortiz has now increased his HR total over the previous year for the 7th straight year. For the years 1999-2006, his totals are:
0, 10, 18, 20, 31, 41, 47, and 52+
Of course, the challenge gets harder every year. Think he can hit in the upper 50's next year? 60+ in 2008? Who knows, if anyone can, it'd be "Big Papi"!

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Saves, Saves, Saves Part 2

Hoffman is within 4 of Lee Smith's career saves record. Here's another look at some saves numbers:

Most Saves by age 25 (with eventual career total):
Gregg Olsen, 131 (career total 217)
Ugueth Urbina, 102 (237+)
Rod Beck, 94 (286)
Bobby Thigpen, 91 (201)
Byung-Hyun Kim, 86 (86+)
Mitch Williams, 84 (192)
Jorge Julio, 83 (99+)
Terry Forster, 76 (127)

By age 30:
Rod Beck, 260 (286)
Ugueth Urbina, 227 (237+)
Robb Nen, 226 (314)
Bruce Sutter, 215 (300)
John Franco, 211 (424)
John Wetteland, 211 (330)
Lee Smith, 209 (478)
Bobby Thigpen, 201 (201)

By age 35:
Lee Smith, 401 (478)
Mariano Rivera, 379 (412+)
Trevor Hoffman, 352 (474+)
Randy Myers, 347 (347)
John Wetteland, 330 (330)
John Franco, 323 (424)
Jeff Reardon, 327 (367)
Troy Percival, 324 (324+)

Saves after age 30:
Dennis Eckersley, 387 (390)
Doug Jones, 294 (303)
Trevor Hoffman, 286+ (474+)
Lee Smith, 269 (478)
Mariano Rivera, 247+ (412+)
Jose Mesa, 233+ (320+)

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Ichiro, Soriano, Ryan Howard

Ichiro Suzuki has stolen 32 bases in a row without being caught. He is 38 out of 40 overall this year, an unbelievable percentage. I don't know if he's been hurting, but he's only stolen 4 in the past month-and-a-half, after averaging 8 or 9 a month the first 4 months.

Alfonzo Soriano is only one SB away from a 40 HR-40 SB season, joining the exclusive 40-40 club.

Ryan Howard is outdoing that other great slugger by that name, Frank Howard, from the '60's and '70's. He has not gone more than 3 straight games without homering in his last 48 games, since July 28. In that time, he's homered 25 times! This includes 7 HR in 5 games from Sept. 2-8, and homers in 6 out of 8 games from Aug. 23-31. He'll likely surpass Maris's old mark in this, his first full season in the majors at age 26!

Monday, September 11, 2006

Doubles Leaders Anomoly

Blessings on all those who lost loved ones five years ago.

Here is an anomoly: Through, yesterday's games, the number of doubles by leaders in that category form a perfect countdown. Here's what I mean:

50 Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
49 Luis Gonzalez, Arizona
48 Michael Young, Texas
47 Miguel Cabrera, Florida
46 Freddie Sanchez, Pittsburg
45 Garrett Atkins, Colorado
44 Nick Johnson, Washington
43 Scott Rolen, St. Louis
42 Lyle Overbay, Toronto

The pattern is broken at 41, where four players are bunched. It looks like a possible 4 to 7 players may get 50. (Of the 76 times 50 has been reached before this year, 26 have come since1995. This after it happened only 3 times during 32 years, 1954-1985!) Especially notable is Gonzalez, who has already set a career high in doubles, this after just turning 39 years old! He has now collected 342+ doubles since turning 30! However, his 57 HR in 2001 still sticks out suspiciously, having never reached half that total since.

By the way, the all-time record for most 50+ doubles hitters is 7, achieved in 1936. Most recently, 5 hit that many in 2000, equalling the number who did it in the years 1954-1992 combined!)

Friday, September 08, 2006

Saves, saves, saves

As Trevor Hoffman closes in on Lee Smith's all-time record, I thought an analysis of saves totals at certain ages, etc. might be illuminating.

One might think the career saves record woudl be higher than it is. The season record is 57, and 50-save seasons are not all that rare anymore. You might think then, that with 16 to 20 year careers, the career record might be at least 600, (avg. 40 a year for 15 years), maybe 700 (39 a year for 18 years). After all, for years the single season HR record was 61, the career record over 12 times that at 755. Likewise with hits (tops around 260, career mark over 4000). The difference, though, is that while eight guys on each team continue to enjoy oportunities for HR's and hits, only one player, generally, on each team gets many save opportunities. As soon as a player's ability decreases noticeably, whether due to age, injury, lack of control or confidence, etc., saves dry up. Some relievers who are not in the closer role average less than one save a year! Hence, Lee Smith's save mark stands at 478, and neither Hoffman or Mariano Rivera will likely approach 600. Another problem is that many top closers never take on that role until their mid- to late 20's. Whereas a HR hitter might have 100 before he's 24, closers are just beginning to earn a few saves at that age.

To see what I mean, here are the saves totals of the top six all-time at ages 25, 30, 35, and end of career:
name-----age 25--age30--age35--career
L. Smith----47-----209-----401-----478
Hoffman-----5-----188-----352-----473+
Franco-----45------211-----323-----424
Eckersley---3--------3------145-----390
Rivera------0------165------379------???
Reardon---16------162------327-----367

A few observations: Rivera was just ahead of Hoffman's pace by age 35, but the key will be who is able to continue in the closer role up near or even past 40. Eckersley is the "freak" exception--didn't become a closer until age 32, but finished in the top 5 all-time by earning an outlandish 245 saves after age 35, including 67 after age 40!

There HAVE been closers who started young (as Chad Cordero and Papelbon are doing now), but such have yet to have staying power. Bobby Thigpen had 91 saves by age 25 (and 146 by age 26, after his record 57), but was done by age 30. Rod Beck had 94 by age 25, and 260 by age 30, seemingly on the way to 500+, but had only 286 when he retired at age 35. Yet if a rubber-arm blessed guy ever approached these kind of totals in his 20's AND Eckersley, Doug Jones (294 of his 303 saves after age 30) or John Smoltz (144 saves in 3 years, ages 35-37) numbers in his 30's and beyond, the record would go sky-high. By my figuring, Beck's 260 up to 30 and Eckersley's 387 post-30 = 647! Never happen? Probably not. But 575 might not be out of the question!

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

And What About Active Career Winning Pct. Guys!

Love him or him, Pedro Martinez knows how to win, Among players with a minimum of 100 career decisions, Pedro ranks 3rd all-time in winning pct. at .698. And of the two guys ahead of him, one (Al Spalding) pitched just 6 years in the earliest days of professional baseball (1871-76), and the other (Spud Chandler) had just 109 career wins. So Martinez, with 206 wins and counting, is the all-time highest, in the modern era, with over 200 wins, or 150 wins, or even 120 wins!

Other active players who rank high: Tim Hudson, .669 (117-58) and Roy Oswalt, .667 (94-47). Roger Clemens could have retired at .667 after 2004 (328-164), but his pct. has suffered since then, despite phenomenal ERA's, and currently stands at .663 (347-176). Still, both this and Maddux's pct. (.621, 330-201) rank far above the pct. of all the 300-hitters of the previous generation (Seaver was highest among those six at .603; 2nd best was Carlton at only .574!)

Other future hall of famers: Randy Johnson, .656 (278-146); Mike Mussina, .642 (237-132) and Andy Pettitte (.640, 185-104) rank very high. Even Tom Glavine (.602, 287-190) ranks right up there with Seaver and way ahead of Carlton, Perry, Ryan, Niekro, and Sutton. Add youngsters Mark Mulder (103-57, .644) and Roy Halladay (95-48, .664) to the mix, and we've got a tremendous number of folks who win much more often than they lose in the majors right now! Of course, just like with batting averages, this is a stat that can drop the longer a pitcher sticks around late in their careers!

A Number of Great Career Avg. Hitters in Our Day

In my lifetime, (I'm 44), there have been three truly great, consistent hitters for average throughout their careers: Rod Carew (.328), Wade Boggs (.328), and, a step above them, Tony Gwynn (.338, number 15 all-time). You'd then have to drop down to .318 (Kirby Puckett) and .317 (Roberto Clemente). Larry Walker and Edgar Martinez are next at .313 and .312 (think those guys are hall-of-fame worthy? Maybe, maybe not) Yet in our current day a number of hitters approach these kinds of numbers up to this point in their careers. Among players with over 3000 AB's:

Todd Helton leads the way with an impressive .333 in 5000 AB (his was higher before the last 2 years). My man Albert Pujols (who just might have his homer mojo back!) is just behind at .3331. On his tail is Ichiro Suzuki at .330 (and likely over 1350 hits by the time his 6th season is complete, a phenomenal rate! I wonder if anyone has ever had 6 200-hit seasons in a row before, much less at the start of their major league career!) A step behind these three at .325 is Vladamir Guerrero (yeah, remember him? Only one of the best all-around players ever seen!) Another notch down and you find a revived Nomar Garciaparra (.319), a - Derek Jeter (.316) and the vastly unde - Manny Ramirez (.315)

Of course, the tricky part about categories like batting average is that your career numbers may DROP as time goes on (in fact, they usually do in the last few years of a career!) Still we ought to celebrate the plethora of great hitters in our day!

Another amazing thing: whereas Carew, Gwynn, and Boggs had only occasional home-run power, Pujols and Ramirez are among the most feared long-ball threats, and Guerrero and Helton hit a lot out, too. Even Garciaparra and Jeter go yard much more often than Gwynn and Co. Only Suzuki fits their pattern of slash hitter.

You Can't Walk Me if You Tried!

Some guys, like Barry Bonds and Bobby Abreu and Brian Giles can finagle a walk just about anytime they want. Others, free swingers and first-ball hitters, won't take a walk if handed to them on a silver platter. Below are some current players who'd rather swing than watch. They are rarely complimented with a shout of "good eye," but they are rarely embarrassed by getting called out on strikes.

Jeff Francour, 26 BB in 798 AB, once every 30.7 at bats
Shea Hillenbrand, 130 BB in 3205 AB, 24.7 BB/AB
Neifi Perez, 226 in 5030, 22.3
Sandy Alomar, 211 in 4486, 21.3
Garret Anderson, 334 in 6917, 20.7

Deivi Cruz, active through 2005 (perhaps in minors now, I don't know) beat Francour in refusal to take a gift, walking just 132 times in 4124 AB, once every 31.2 AB. Sometimes Hispanic players have a reputation for being free swingers, but whites and blacks are represented on this list, too. It would seem to me that these guys' lack of walks, and therefore lower on-base percentage, would be a detriment to their production. And I would think that pitchers would take advantage of their ways by throwing them lots of junk outside the strike zone for them to chase. Nevertheless, guys like Francour, Hillenbrand and Anderson (and Alomar, in his day, when not hurt) are solid, all-star caliber players. Go figure!

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Best Years-in-a-Row HR Totals

Everyone knows the best one-year home run records for an individual. But what REALLY counts is hitting 'em out in bunches for several years in a row. Here, then are the top 10 for 2-years consecutive, 3 years in a row, etc.

Top 2 Year totals:
135 (70-65) McGwire (1998-99)
129 (66-63) Sosa (98-99)
128 (58-70) McGwire (97-98)
122 (49-73) Bonds (2000-01)
119 (73-46) Bonds (01-02)
114 (60-54) Ruth (1927-28)
114 (50-64) Sosa (00-01)
113 (54-59) Ruth (20-21)
113 (64-49) Sosa (01-02)
112 (56-56) Griffey, Jr. (97-98)

Best Three Year Totals:
193 (58-70-65) McGwire (97-99)
180 (52-58-70) McGwire (96-98)
179 (66-63-50) Sosa (98-00)
177 (63-50-64) Sosa (99-01)
168 (49-73-46) Bonds (00-02)
164 (73-46-45) Bonds (01-03)
163 (50-64-49) Sosa (00-02)
161 (47-60-54) Ruth (26-28)
161 (49-56-56) Griffey, Jr. (96-98)
160 (60-54-46) Ruth (27-29)
160 (56-56-48) Griffey, Jr. (97-99)

4-Year Leaders (only 1 listing per player from here on):
245 (52-58-70-65) McGwire (96-99)
243 (66-63-50-64) Sosa (98-01)
213 (49-73-46-45) Bonds (00-03)
209 (47-60-54-46) Ruth (26-29)
209 (49-56-56-48) Griffey, Jr. (96-99)

You gotta go to 5-year totals before Sosa gets the best of Big Mac:
292 (66-63-50-64-49) Sosa (98-02)
284 (39-52-58-70-65) McGwire (95-99)
256 (47-60-54-46-49) Ruth (26-30)
249 (49-56-56-48-40) Griffey, Jr. (96-00)
247 (34-49-73-46-45) Bonds (99-03)
240 (52-57-47-36-48) A-Rod (01-05)
234 (51-40-54-47-42) Kiner (47-51)

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Switch Hitting Sluggers

I don't want to lose my faithful readers (all 4 of you (-; ), so here's today's entry, focusing on switch-hitting sluggers. Until Mickey Mantle came along, that phrase was an oxymoron. The typical switch-hitter, both in the deadball era (pre-Ruth) and later was a slap, spray, singles and gapper hitter, a get-on-base kind of guy. I gotta do a little more research, but I wouldn't be surprised if the top career HR total for a switch-hitter pre-Mantle was no more than 150. Then the Mick came along and smashed the swith-hitter stereotype, hitting over 50 twice on his way to 536 total (he looked headed for much more until debilitating injuries and the bottle halted things a bit early). Forty years later, Mantle is still the career leader. In the 1970's, 2 ex-Cardinals, Reggie Smith and Ted Simmons, took 2nd and 3rd at the time with 314 and 248. The first one to approach Mantle's total, "Steady" Eddie Murray, did it with constistency and longevity. Today's top switch-hitting sluggers include Chipper Jones, Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, and Mark Teixeira. Here's the career Top Ten:
536 Mantle
504 Murray
353 Chipper Jones (passed Davis Aug. 26)
350 Chili Davis
314 R. Smith
306 Ruben Sierra
287 Bobby Bonilla
286 Bernie Williams (about to move into 7th)
248 Ted Simmons
246 Ken Singleton (teamed with Murray several years for better tandem than Smith-Simmons)

At age 34, Jones has a shot at 500 if he can stay healthy. Berkman is coming on strong with 216 in only 7+ years. And Beltran has over 200 at age 29. Look for future entries on the lefty-righty breakdown of these switch-hitters (some's power stats are more equally distributed than others), as well as single season switch-hitting homer records.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Bonds Stands Alone in Career HR/SB Combo

Love him (SF) or hate him (rest of the world), Barry Bonds' stats stand out in numerous ways. One is his career totals in HR and SB. I can remember being impressed to see baseball cards like Lou Brock's listing over 100 of each. Two hundred of each (Frank Robinson, Aaron) was considered an accomplishment a couple of decades ago. Even now, in this age of common 30-30 guys, few have joined the 250-250 club:
Robin Yount, 251 HR, 271 SB
Kirk Gibson, 255, 284
Don Baylor, 338, 285
Vada Pinson, 256, 305
Joe Morgan, 268, 689
Rickey Henderson, 297, 1406

Add in these precious few in the prestigious 300-300 Club:
Reggie Sanders, 303, 304 (just joined this year)
Steve Finley, 303, 320 (likewise)
Andre Dawson, 438, 314
Willie Mays, 660, 338
Bobby Bonds, 332, 461

The 350-350 Club looks like this:

And the 400-400 Club:

450-450?:

500-500--1 member
Barry Bonds, 725 (and may it stay forever under 755!), and 509 SB.

Of course, most of the SB's came in the PRE-roid days. Still, impressive numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if 50 years from now, he is still the only member of the 500-500 club.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

How to Explain Gary Bennett's Turnaround?

Gary Bennet, backup catcher of the St. Louis Cardinals and veteran of over 8 years in the majors, has been with the team since opening day, but playing little, and for good reason--his offense was pitiful! Through Aug. 16, in 40 games he had 22 hits in 118 AB's for a sub-Mendoza line .186 average. Even worse, he had all of 5 doubles (the last one June 20), 0 triples and 0 homers for a .229 slugging average, lower than that of dozens of starting pitchers! He had scored 9 runs and driven in 13 in 4 and a half months.

Then something clicked. Now, in his last five games (before tonight) he is 10 for 16 with three home runs and 5 RBI's! His average is up to .239, his slugging pct. now .343! He went from a guy I would imagine on the verge of being released to a guy playing most every day and the most dangerous hitter on the planet! Go figure! I just know if you're a Cardinal fan like me, you pray the hot streak lasts through October!

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Helton Tops in AB per Double

I bet you didn't know that Todd Helson is currently the ALL-TIME best in frequency of doubles, breaking the record held for a long, long time by career doubles champ Tris Speaker. Of course, this is one of those records that can be yours for a time, then lost if future years cause the frequency to go down. As of now, here is the top 10 in At Bats per Double:

1. 12.366, Helton, 4971 AB, 402 2B
2. 12.872, Speaker, 10195, 792
3. 13.563, Chick Hafey, 4625, 341
4. 13.702, Hank Greenberg, 5193, 379
5. 14.033, Edgar Martinez, 7213, 514
6. 14.035, Bobby Abreu, 5165, 368
7. 14.043, Babe Herman, 5603, 399
8. 14.044, Riggs Stephenson, 4508, 321
9. 14.139, Joe Medwick, 7635, 540
10. 14.324, Nomar Garciaparra, 4727, 330

We are in the midst of the 2nd great age of doubles hitting. No one on the list from the 1940's through the 1970's. Martinez led the way that active players Helton, Abreu and Garciaparra have followed in. And Helton has a good lead on Speaker, with the two of them WAY ahead of everyone else in the history of baseball!

Manny Ramirez among best ever in games per RBI

Manny Ramirez is not even the most celebrated player on his own team, but he is one of the all-time best at driving in runs. Here are the top 10 all-time in RBI's per game (a better measure than per AB, since RBI's earned thru sacrifice flies and walks don't count as AB's):

10. Cap Anson 2523 g, 2076 RBI, 1.215 g/RBI
9. Al Simmons 2215 g, 1827 RBI, 1.212
8. Jimmy Foxx 2317, 1922, 1.206
7. Juan Gonzalez 1689, 1404, 1.203
6.Manny Ramirez, 1809, 1514, 1.195
5. Babe Ruth, 2503, 2213, 1.131
4. Joe DiMaggio, 1736, 1537, 1.129
3. Hank Greenberg, 1394, 1276, 1.092
2. Lou Gehrig, 2164, 1995, 1.085
and # 1 is (any guesses?) how about ...
1. Sam Thompson, 1407, 1299, 1.083

Ramirez had an unbelievable 165 in 147 games in 1999. I was surprised to find Juan Gonzalez ranked right behind Manny--Gonzalez's career petered out a little early recently. Thompson, btw, is a hall-of-famer from the 19th century, playing principally from 1885-1896, who led the league in RBI's in 1887 with 166 in 127 g, and in 1895 with 165 in only 119 g!

Franscisco's Turnaround

Talk about your dramatic reversal! It's a long-known adage that when a veteran player is struggling, often a change of scenery will turn him around. Boy, has it ever with Francisco Cordero! The closer had saved 86 games the previous two years for the Rangers. But he lost his closer's role after a horrific April (3 saves, 5 blown saves, 11.45 ERA) He continued to struggle in the occasional save opportunities afforded him over the next 3 months (3 saves, 4 blown saves) while lowering his ERA to an almost respectable 4.81. Then came the trade to Milwaukee in the last week of July. With only 6 saves in 15 opportunities, he seemed a poor bet for closer. But with Turnbow making a mess of things (ERA over 6, 4 blown saves in a row) the Brewers were desperate. And Cordero has responded unbelievably! He has yet to give up a run in 13 games, 12 2/3 innings, with 10 saves and a win in his last 11 appearances. Opponents are batting an anemic .163 against him. Go, Francisco! You're an inspiration to us all that we can turn things around!

Friday, August 25, 2006

HR Leaders Breakdown by Mo.

Sorry I missed two days, faithful readers (and if you ARE one of those, would you do me the favor of a reply? Thanks!) Today we look at the monthly HR breakdown of 2006's leading HR hitters.
----------April----May----June----July----Aug. (thru 24th)
Ortiz------10-------5-------8-------14-------9----46 total
Howard---5------13-------9---------8-------9----44
Soriano----7------12------5---------8-------9-----41
Hafner-----7-------7-------7--------8-------10----39
Dunn------9-------8-------9---------5--------7-----38
Pujols-----14-----11------1 (inj.)----7--------5-----38

You can see that Ortiz had a monster July, Howard (and Soriano) a huge May, and Pujols a hot 1st 2 months. Hafner gets the consistency award, and is turning it up now. An average of just over 8 a month would result in 50 for the year; 10 a month would bring a 60 total; 12 a month would be 72, one off Bonds' record. It looks like we're headed for 2 or 3 players in the 50's this year, with a possible high of about 58. It's also worth noting that all 4 in the top four are having very good and equal Augusts, so there is little change among them from where those 4 stood a month ago. The only change is Dunn and Pujols have dropped off the pace.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Hispanics in the Hall

I was just noticing the symmetry, the even distribution of Hispanic players in the Hall of Fame. There is one Puerto Rican (Clemente), one Dominican (Juan Marichal), one Venezuelan (Luis Aparicio), one Panamanian (Rod Carew), and one Cuban (Tony Perez). Too bad no Mexicans or U.S.-born Hispanics!

Lee Smith for Hall of Fame!

As Trevor Hoffman is now within 10 saves of Lee Smith's career record (he could break it before the season is over), I gotta wonder, how come Lee Smith hasn't already been elected to the Hall of Fame? Hoyt Wilhelm, the 1st reliever to get in, held the career saves record for many years until Rollie Finger broke it. Fingers, too, was elected upon eligibility. Then Lee Smith came along and broke the old record by over 100, to 478. Percentage-wise, that would have been like Aaron surpassing Ruth's 714 by over 200, to 900-something HR's, or Rose passing Cobb's hits record with over 5,000. Still, Smith gets passed over year after year, while first Eckersley and last year, Sutter (only 300 career saves) double the number of relievers in Cooperstown. And I hear more lobbying lately for Goose Gossage (310 career saves) than for Smith. What's the deal? I once read that voters were holding Smith's losing Won-Loss record (71-91) against him. I'm not buying that--since when does a reliever's winning percentage count for squat? Closers get most of their wins on blown saves! Put him in now--what are you guys waiting for?

Highest Leading ERA this Year?

I was surprised to find that 2006 may set a new record for highest ERA to lead the majors! Currently, Josh Johnson of Fla. Marlins is the lowest qualifier (1+ innings per game played by team), and his ERA is a not-so-impressive 2.84 (Liriano of Minn. was listed as leader for awhile, and currently stands at 2.19, but with only 119 IP and on the DL right now, it's not likely he'll pitch enough innings to qualify.) The highest ERA to ever lead the majors for the year was Lefty Grove's 2.81 in 1929, baseball's first "juiced ball" era. THe highest since then was Saul Rogorin's (who's?) 2.78 in 1951, and the highest ERA to lead the majors in recent years is Jimmy Key's 2.76 in 1987.

Monday, August 21, 2006

High Homers, Low Strike Outs

Sluggers tend to have high strikeout totals. Casey at the Bat explains why--the harder you swing, the better chance the ball will be knocked out if you hit it flush, but also the greater the chance you'll miss contact altogether! So rare is the player whose HR total is anywhere near as high as his K's. More typical is Adam Dunn (37 HR, 148 K so far in '06) or Wily Mo Pena(10 HR,62 K).

The all-time career leader in Homers to Strikeouts is Joltin' Joe DiMaggio, with 361 HR and just 369 K, for a .978 ratio. Second best (I would have NEVER guessed) is Yogi Berra, with 358 HR and 414 K (.865). There was much more to Yogi than just memorably stupid sayings! Third: Teddy Ballgame (Williams): 521 HR, 709 K (.735).

The only player I know of in recent times to have more dingers than whiffs in any given year is Barry Bonds, who, after barely missing in '02 (46 HR, 47 K) two years later, in 2004 hit 45 out while striking out only 41 times. Albert Pujols came close that same year with 46 HR and 52 K (.885). Pujols just might pull it off this year. He had 36 HR with 34 K before 3 strikeouts in the last two, homerless games put him just behind the pace. It would be quite an incredible feat--most sluggers are happy if they only strike out 2 1/2 or 3 times for every homer!

Worst Hitting Sluggers of All Time

Here we go with the HR hitters (175+ in career) with the lowest career batting averages, in descending order:
10. .242 355 HR Greg Vaughn (only black on the list)
T-8..241 245 HR Mickey Tettleton(S-H)
T-8..241 201 HR Gene Tenace(C)
7. .240 179 HR Woodie Held (who?!)
6. .239 176 HR Ron Kittle(Don't tell any more stories on poor Barry!)
5. .236 442 HR the immortal Dave King(Kong)man
4. .234 202 HR Todd Hundley(2nd catcher, 2nd switch-hitter on the list)
3. .229 181 HR Steve Balboni (those avgs are REALLY gettin' ugly now!)
2. .225 268 HR "Stormin'" Gorman Thomas (stormin' backto a seat in the dugout all too often!)
and (drum roll) the all time worst hitting slugger is...
1. .220 230 HR Rob Deer (in the headlights!)
For what it's worth, notice the preponderance of 1970's-early 80's guys. And that's all I have to say about that.

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Duncan Rookie of Year?

Chris Duncan, son of Cardinal pitching coach (and former major league catcher) Dave Duncan, already hit a HR in his 3rd straight game today for the Cards. Before today's game he was batting .345 with an incredible .648 slugging percentage, helped by 13 HR in just 165 AB. I'm wondering if he made the bigs too late to win Rookie of the year. Jeff Francoeur was talked up for rookie of year for his partial year in 2005, until he faded down the stretch (that dude still hasn't learned how to take a walk!). Instead, Ryan Howard won with just 312 AB in 88 games, just over half a year (He had 22 HR and batted .288 with a .567 slugging avg. numbers Duncan should surpass easily). The precedent everyone always points to is Willie McCovey, who had just 192 AB when he won it in 1959. Duncan just surpassed McCovey's rookie total of 13 HR's today, and is right near McCovey's avg. (.354) and slugging (.656) for that year. Besides, Duncan will have closer to half a year by the time the season is over, as opposed to McCovey's 1/3 year.

BTW, Duncan is currently on a 5 game streak of 2 or more hits, and is 22 for 42 in the 11 games before today! That's why I just added him to my fantasy team (don't go cold on me now!)

Saturday, August 19, 2006

My Pic (don't let it scare you off!)

First Go at It: Pujols, etc.

I've been a stats nut since as long as I remember, with a special affinity for baseball numbers. I can lose myself for hours compiling and analyzing obscure stats like most doubles per 100 at bats, or brother records, single year or career. But I always scribbled this stuff on notebook paper, never compiled it in any organized fashion, and never shared it with other stats freaks (I'm told there are lots of you out there!) So this blog is my attempt to share with the world the fruits of my compulsive labor of love. Here goes with the first one:

Alfonzo Soriano (member of my Yahoo fantasy baseball team, btw), just became the first player not named Bonds to have 4+ 30-30 seasons (30+ homers and 30+ stolen bases). Though 30-30 has become much more common in recent years, it looks like Soriano of the Washington Nationals will be the only player to achieve the feat in 2006.

My hero Albert Pujols of recently struggling St Louis Cardinals can't quite shake the effects of an early June injury that had him out for a little over 2 weeks. Prior to the injury, on June 2, he hit 25 dingers in 185 AB's, for an incredible rate of one every 7.4 AB (he was threatening Bonds' single season record of 73 at that point). Since then, although he has raised his average from .308 to .326, he has only hit 11 HR in 201 AB, a rate of one every 18.3 AB. He may not even break his personal best of 46. Even so, what he has done in his first 6 seasons is incredible: at age 26, his career numbers are .332 avg. with 237 HR, 719 RBI, 19 runs, 253 doubles, and a .628 slugging average, currently 4th best all-time, behind some guys named Ruth, Gehrig, and Ted Williams and AHEAD of Barry Bonds. All this, and no steroid alegations!