Saves, saves, saves

As Trevor Hoffman closes in on Lee Smith's all-time record, I thought an analysis of saves totals at certain ages, etc. might be illuminating.

One might think the career saves record woudl be higher than it is. The season record is 57, and 50-save seasons are not all that rare anymore. You might think then, that with 16 to 20 year careers, the career record might be at least 600, (avg. 40 a year for 15 years), maybe 700 (39 a year for 18 years). After all, for years the single season HR record was 61, the career record over 12 times that at 755. Likewise with hits (tops around 260, career mark over 4000). The difference, though, is that while eight guys on each team continue to enjoy oportunities for HR's and hits, only one player, generally, on each team gets many save opportunities. As soon as a player's ability decreases noticeably, whether due to age, injury, lack of control or confidence, etc., saves dry up. Some relievers who are not in the closer role average less than one save a year! Hence, Lee Smith's save mark stands at 478, and neither Hoffman or Mariano Rivera will likely approach 600. Another problem is that many top closers never take on that role until their mid- to late 20's. Whereas a HR hitter might have 100 before he's 24, closers are just beginning to earn a few saves at that age.

To see what I mean, here are the saves totals of the top six all-time at ages 25, 30, 35, and end of career:
name-----age 25--age30--age35--career
L. Smith----47-----209-----401-----478
Hoffman-----5-----188-----352-----473+
Franco-----45------211-----323-----424
Eckersley---3--------3------145-----390
Rivera------0------165------379------???
Reardon---16------162------327-----367

A few observations: Rivera was just ahead of Hoffman's pace by age 35, but the key will be who is able to continue in the closer role up near or even past 40. Eckersley is the "freak" exception--didn't become a closer until age 32, but finished in the top 5 all-time by earning an outlandish 245 saves after age 35, including 67 after age 40!

There HAVE been closers who started young (as Chad Cordero and Papelbon are doing now), but such have yet to have staying power. Bobby Thigpen had 91 saves by age 25 (and 146 by age 26, after his record 57), but was done by age 30. Rod Beck had 94 by age 25, and 260 by age 30, seemingly on the way to 500+, but had only 286 when he retired at age 35. Yet if a rubber-arm blessed guy ever approached these kind of totals in his 20's AND Eckersley, Doug Jones (294 of his 303 saves after age 30) or John Smoltz (144 saves in 3 years, ages 35-37) numbers in his 30's and beyond, the record would go sky-high. By my figuring, Beck's 260 up to 30 and Eckersley's 387 post-30 = 647! Never happen? Probably not. But 575 might not be out of the question!