Howard and Sheffield Near HR Milestones

In the third-to-last game of the year, Ryan Howard has hit his 48th homer, giving him an outside shot at 50, whereas no one else is likely to get 40. Also, Gary Sheffield, who looked washed up in 2006 and again earlier this year, just hit his 498th home run, nearing the magical hall-of-fame guarantee of 500. He'll be 40 next year, and is only hitting .223.

Most and Least Likely to Give Up a Homer

Top 10 toughest active pitchers to hit a homer off of, among those with 1500+ Innings Pitched (measured in innings pitched per home run):
1. 14.21 Greg Maddux (352 in 5002 1/3)
2. 12.61 Tim Hudson (160 in 2017 1/3)
3. 12.40 Tom Glavine (356 in 4413 1/3)
4. 12.38 Derek Lowe (156 in 1930 1/3)
5. 12.26 John Smoltz (277 in 3395)
6. 12.03 Roy Halladay (149 in 1792 2/3)
7. 12.01 Roy Oswalt (134 in 1610)
8. 11.99 Pedro Martinez (231 in 2770 2/3)
9. 11.97 Tom Gordon (176 in 2106 1/3)
10.11.86 Andy Pettite (230 in 2726 2/3)

And the 5 worst active pitchers in giving up homers among those with 1500+ Innings Pitched (measured in innings pitched per home run):
1. 6.82 Paul Byrd (243 in 1658)
2. 7.17 Woody Williams (309 in 2216 1/3)
3. 7.19 Steve Traschel (348 in 2501)
4. 7.28 Brett Tomko (239 in 1741)
5. 7.56 Jeff Suppan (294 in 2224)

Note: Hudson's accomplishment is all the more remarkable because, unlike the former Braves Big 3 of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine, he has pitched his whole career since the homer boom of 1993 on. Also of note is Brandon Webb, who doesn't yet qualify with 1500+ innings pitched, but currently stands at giving up a homer every 14.46 IP (90 in 1301 2/3).

Also, several recently active (but not active in 2008) pitchers were truly horendous: Jose Lima, 5.87 (267 in 1567 2.3), Eric Milton, 5.88 (265 in 1558 2.3) and Ramon Ortiz, 6.27 (217 in 1359 2/3)

SB % of 500 HR Hitters

1. 80.8, A-Rod (282 of 349)
2. 80.1, Mantle (153 of 191)
3. 78.5, Bonds (514 of 655)
4. 76.7, Aaron (240 of 314)
5. 76.6, Mays (338 of 441)
6. 72.7, Griffey, Jr. (184 of 253)
7. 72.6, Frank Robinson (204 of 281)
8. 71.9, Murray (110 of 153)
9. 70.8, Palmeiro (97 of 137)
10. 68.6, Sosa (234 of 341)
11. 66.5, Reggie Jackson (228 of 343)
12. 65.4, Schmidt (174 of 266)
13. 63.6, Eddie Mathews (68 of 107)
14. 60.0, McGwire (12 of 20)
15. 58.5, Ted Williams (24 of 41)
16. 58.2, Frank Thomas (32 of 53)
17. 54.4, Manny Ramirez (37 of 68)
18. 54.2, McCovey (26 of 48)
19. 51.4, Killebrew (19 of 37)
20. 48.7, Thome (19 of 39)
21. 48.5, Banks (50 of 103)

Note: Ruth, Foxx and Ott all played in years when caught stealing totals were not complete: thus their career stolen base percentage cannot be calculated accurately.

AL Homer Crown

It looks like no one in the AL will get 40 homers this year. If so, it will be the first time in many years, since the boom of the ball and steroids in the early 1990's. Carlos Quentin of the ChiSox was on pace to reach 40, with 36 as of a couple of weeks ago, but his careless hand injury took him out of it.

Ryan Howard: Low Avg, High Ribbies

Ryan Howard leads the majors by a good bit in RBI's with 133 (2nd is 124). Yet he is only batting .244 (a big improvement over the .160-something he was at in mid-May, I believe). Still, compare that .244 with the batting average of the others in the top 8 in RBI's so far this year: .312, .304, .289, .301, .302, .324, and .312. Only one below .300, and that one is WAY above .244. In fact, you got to go all the way down to Mark Reynolds, tied for 26th in RBI's in the majors with 92, before you find someone batting as low as Howard (Reynolds is just lower, at .242). Somehow, Howard is getting it done.

Red Sox Sockin' it Out

Boston has 6 home runs through 5 inning tonight against Tampa Bay--now that the old Devil Rays we come to expect over their lifetime! Wonder what the record is for team homers in a game?

Success at 30 doesn't guarantee Hall of Fame numbers

I often find myself gauging players numbers at age 30 to see who might be likely to challenge the 3000 hit, 500 homer or 300 win totals before their done--who's "on pace," in other words (or 600 stolen bases, 3000 strikeouts, 400 saves, etc.)

I was surprised to find, then, that this might not be such an accurate gauge.

Take the top 10 in hits through age 30. In order, they are: Cobb, Aaron, Hornsby, A-Rod, Ott, Foxx, Yount, Vada Pinson, Joe Medwick, and Willie Keeler. The amazing things that jump out at me:

1. Of those 9 (excluding A-Rod, whose only 32) only 3 (Cobb, Aaron and Yount) went on to collect 3000 hits. All the others' careers apparently flamed out by the mid-30's.

2. Where's all-time hit leader Pete Rose? He only had 1724 through age 30, 231 behind 10th place Keeler. And Stan Musial, who collected the 4th most (3630), and all the other top 10 in career hits, are nowhere to be seen in the top 10 at age 30. It's longevity--maintaining both the skill and the will well into your late 30's and early 40's--that count the most, rather than starting in your teens, or blazing through your 20's.

K-Rod Update

Francisco Rodriguez saved his 56th, one short of tying Bobby Thigpen's record. There must be something about that 26th year--that's how old K-Rod is this year; how old Thigpen was when he saved 57 in 1990, as well as Greg Gagne with 52 saves in 2002.

Also, K-Rod now has 202 career saves. That's 42 more than any other pitcher has accululated by age 26 (Gregg Olsen had 160). A lot of top relievers don't even become closers until around age 26. The trick for K-Rod will be to continue to produce well into his 30's, rather than flaming out like Thigpen and Olsen did--Thigpen had just 53 more career saves after his record year, for a total of 201 (K-Rod just PASSED him there), and was done at age 30. Likewise, Olsen ended up with just 217 saves before retiring at age 34. And, of course, Gagne has struggled to regain form since injuries struck after compiling an amazing 152 saves from age 25-28, having only 187 career saves now at age 32.

A-Rod Through Age 31

And the same thing I just did for Pujols for Alex Rodriguez, in his case through age 31:
Games: 3rd, behind Ott and Yount
At Bats: 3rd, behind Yount and Vada Pinson
Plate Appearances: 1st
Runs: 1st
Hits: 4th, behind Cobb, Hornsby, and Aaron
Total Bases: 1st
Doubles: tied for 6th, behind Medwick, Musial, Yount, Gehrig and Ed Delahanty
Home Runs: 1st, 54 ahead of 2nd place Foxx, and 120 ahead of Aaron (much more than that ahead of Bonds)
RBI: 2nd, behind Foxx
Strike Outs: 2nd behind Sosa
Extra-base hits: 2nd behind Foxx
Times on Base: 3rd behind Ott and Foxx
Hit by Pitch: 10th
At Bats per Home Run: tied for 6th, behind Ruth, Killebrew, McGwire, Kiner and Thome

Pujols' rankings at Age 27

Here's where Albert Pujols ranked in various categories (where he's in the top 10)compared to all other players through age 27 (through 2007 for him):

Slugging Pct.: 5th, behind Ruth, T. Williams, Foxx and Gehrig.
OPS: 6th, behind the same 4 listed above plus Frank Thomas
Total Bases: 7th, behind A-Rod, Ott, Foxx, Aaron, Griffey Jr., and Mantle
Doubles: 2nd (!) behind Joe Medwick
Home Runs: 5th, behind A-Rod, Foxx, E. Mathews and Griffey (29 ahead of Aaron)
RBI: 9th, behind Ott, Foxx, A-Rod, DiMaggio, George Davis (?), Medwick, Griffey, and Aaron.
Extra-Base Hits: 4th, behind A-Rod, Foxx, and Ott, and just ahead of Aaron.
Intentional Walks: 3rd, behind Griffey and Vladimir Guerrero (not compiled for old-timers like Ruth, Foxx, etc.)
At Bats per Home Run: Tied for 5th with Rocky Colavito, behind Kiner, Killebrew, Ruth, Adam Dunn, and Juan Gonzalez.

Pedroia on a Tear

From June 14 to September 6, Dustin Pedroia of Boston batted 119 for 297, an incredible .401 clip for over two and a half months. He raised his average from .260 to an AL-leading .333 in that time. At one time, it looked like the AL batting average champ was gonna have an embarrassingly low number, under .320, but no longer. Milton Bradley is still within striking range of Pedroia at .327.

K-Rod and the Saves Record

Francisco Rodriguez is an pace for over 60 saves, surpassing Bobby Thigpen's 17 year old record of 57. K-Rod now has 54 saves for the Angels, with 25 games left. At his current pace, he'd likely end up with about 63, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Angels give him a bit of a well-deserved break down the stretch, after the record's broken, if they've got their playoff position secured.