Success at 30 doesn't guarantee Hall of Fame numbers

I often find myself gauging players numbers at age 30 to see who might be likely to challenge the 3000 hit, 500 homer or 300 win totals before their done--who's "on pace," in other words (or 600 stolen bases, 3000 strikeouts, 400 saves, etc.)

I was surprised to find, then, that this might not be such an accurate gauge.

Take the top 10 in hits through age 30. In order, they are: Cobb, Aaron, Hornsby, A-Rod, Ott, Foxx, Yount, Vada Pinson, Joe Medwick, and Willie Keeler. The amazing things that jump out at me:

1. Of those 9 (excluding A-Rod, whose only 32) only 3 (Cobb, Aaron and Yount) went on to collect 3000 hits. All the others' careers apparently flamed out by the mid-30's.

2. Where's all-time hit leader Pete Rose? He only had 1724 through age 30, 231 behind 10th place Keeler. And Stan Musial, who collected the 4th most (3630), and all the other top 10 in career hits, are nowhere to be seen in the top 10 at age 30. It's longevity--maintaining both the skill and the will well into your late 30's and early 40's--that count the most, rather than starting in your teens, or blazing through your 20's.