500 HR Club Redoux

I mentioned a month ago that 2007 could see as many as four additions to the 500 HR club (Frank Thomas, A-Rod, Jim Thome, and Manny Ramirez). All would still seem a pretty good bet to make it: Manny is most in doubt. He only needed 30 HR this season to hit 500, and he's hit over 30 (often WELL over) the past 9 and 11 of the past 12 years. But so far in 2007, he's only got 8, so he'll need to pick it up (I still wouldn't bet against him). Another interesting development: Seemingly washed up Gary Sheffield has found new life, hitting 15 homers in just over 1/3 of a season. If he hits 30 more, he'll hit 500 this year!

The club admissions HAVE come in bunches before. Consider this: From the time Ruth inagurated the club in 1929 through 1964, only three other players earned admittance (Foxx, Ott, and Ted Williams. Lou Gehrig certainly would have made it, but ALS struck him at age 36 or 37 and froze him at 493 HR). Then, from 1965 through 1971, the club mushroomed suddenly from 4 to 11 (adding Mays in '65, Mantle and Mathews in '67 (all "Ma"'s!), Aaron in '68, Banks in '70 and Killebrew and Frank Robinson in '71.) Then from 1972 to 1995, only 3 more were added (McCovey in '78, Reggie Jackson in '84, and Mike Schmidt in '87). Eddie Murray joined in '96, then the floodgates (or should I say "juiced blood" gates) opened again, with McGwire added in '99, Bonds in '01, Palmeiro and Sosa in '03, and Griffey (who just might have done it cleanly) in '04, for a bloated total of 20, and still expanding. Soon very few fans, no matter how rabid, will be able to name every member from memory (I doubt I could without reviewing the list immediately before trying).